Document Type : Articles
Author
Department of Agricultural Economy, College of Agriculture, University of Tikrit
Abstract
The corn crop is one of the main crops in Iraq and is of great importance in terms of food and industry, as it is used in the manufacture of corn flakes, starch, oil, etc., and is used as animal feed. The research aimed to estimate the supply function of the maize crop in Iraq for the period (1990 - 2019) and to determine the factors affecting the production of the crop, represented by the price and non-price factors. The Nerlov partial adjustment model was used for a set of explanatory variables, namely, corn production as a dependent factor, the price of the crop for the current and previous years, rains, corn production in the previous year, price risk, technology variable, and the qualitative variable represented by the economic blockade as independent factors. The method of least squares was used in the analysis of several functions including linear, double logarithmic, half logarithmic and inverse logarithmic. The results indicated that the double logarithmic function is the best in terms of its conformity with the logic of economic theory and statistical criteria. The value of the coefficient of determination R2 was (0.89), and this indicates that the independent factors affect by (89%) the dependent variable, and that (11%) are due to other factors outside the model whose impact is absorbed by the random variable. The results of all parameters appeared significant according to the t-test at a level of significance (1%) to express the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables, and that the calculated F value is greater than the tabular F value, which amounted to (76.69), which indicates the significance of the model as a whole. The results indicated that corn supply is elastic in the short-run and inelastic in the long-run, which indicates that corn growers are less sensitive to price changes. And it was found that the supply of corn increases by (0.14, 0.19, 0.27) when the cultivated areas and prices of the current and previous year increase by one unit in order, and the research concluded that the supply of corn depends on several factors, the most important of which are prices in the current and previous year and the areas planted with the crop and to a lesser extent on the amount of rain And the production of corn in the previous year and the technological factor and other factors despite their positive impact on the production of the crop. The study recommends adopting policies that focus on non-price factors as a means to stabilize and increase corn production.
Keywords
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