Document Type : Articles

Authors

Department of Economics and Agricultural Extension, College of Agriculture, Tikrit University, Iraq.

Abstract

The study aimed to predict Iraqi agricultural and food imports for the period (2021-2027) using the Box-Jenkins methodology. The autocorrelation and partial functions were used for the purpose of ensuring the stability of time series and testing the residual correlation, histogram and probabilistic distribution of residuals of the estimated model for the purpose of ensuring the suitability of the chosen model The study found an increase in both Iraqi agricultural and food imports during the studied period, and in light of the results reached, the study recommends maintaining the growth of this sector at 1.5%, 1.2% for agricultural and food imports, respectively..

Keywords

  1. Al-Jaasi, Khalid bin Saad, (2006). Decision making techniques (computational techniques). Research and Studies Center. Fahd Security College.
  2. Al-Ani, Ahmed Hussein Battal, (2005). The use of ARIMA models in economic forecasting. Posted on the Internet. www.google.com.
  3. Berri, Adnan Majed Abdul Rahman, (2002). Statistical forecasting methods. King Saud University. Saudi Arabia.
  4. Sheikhi, Muhammad, (2012). Econometrics methods lectures and applications. Al-Hamid Library for Publishing and Distribution. Oman. First edition.
  5. Vandel, Walter, (1992). Time series from the API and Box-Jenkins models (translator). Mars Publishing House. Riyadh. Saudi Arabia.
  6. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) - Yearbook of statistics and the organization's website on the international information network www.fao.org.faostat - School years.
  7. Ministry of Planning/Central Statistical Organization/Directorate of Trade Statistics.